The number of Kangaroos targeted in Victoria since 2010.

• 2010 – 39,559
• 2011 – 34,721
• 2012 – 45,717
• 2013 – 75,139
• 2014 – 84,100
• 2015 – 135,887
• 2016 – 169,544
• 2017 – 189,086
• 2018 – 168,992
• 2019 – 136,502 (Red Kangaroo not added to KHP in Victoria)
• 2020 - 137,800 (Catastrophic fires destroyed wildlife populations and the world donates to help save them)
• 2021 - 191,200 (Victorian Government claims Kangaroo population increase of 41 per cent)
• 2022 - 185,850
• 2023 - 236,350 (plan) - Victorian Government claim yet another significant increase in the population of Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos, this time 24 per cent). Our estimates show that the most probable total kill in 2023 was, adjusting the claimed ATCW number of 75,375 downwards to 31,657, gives a total kill figure for Grey Kangaroos in Victoria in 2023 of 103,889. This reduction with even the significant level of killing occurring on public land using ATCWs.
• 2024 – 236,350 (plan) – quota based on numbers derived from 2022 population survey which claimed a 24 per cent increase, that on top of a 41 per cent increase claimed from the previous survey.

“Under the previous KHMP 2021-2023, the assessment of kangaroo populations for management purposes was undertaken using a design-based approach. A new model-based approach has been developed and will be used for Grey Kangaroo population estimates under this Plan”. Victorian Government

NOTE: The new 'finer grain' model should mean that more places in Victoria that do not have Kangaroos will now be excluded from the estimating process. The model in turn should be allocating Kangaroos to a smaller habitat area of Victoria. This change should not impact the actual Kangaroo survey count used in the model (with added detection probability multipliers). It will be very interesting to see what this year's Kangaroo count numbers are. Given the serial decline (not increases as claimed) of Kangaroo populations in Victoria this year's count should produce a lower number than in 2022. My money is on the opposite occurring, then we need to ask how and why?

NOTE: The new approved plan now has five shooting zones instead of seven, excludes most of Melbourne but adds public lands. I do not see that these changes will materially impact the population estimate but may impact the quota.

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Number of Kangaroos counted during Victorian Government surveys

A new Kangaroo population survey is due in late 2024.

Since 2014, when the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos was introduced in Victoria, there have been four Victorian Government Kangaroo population surveys.

NOTE: My simple multiplier analysis gives the multiplication number for the raw count that gives the population estimate. That raw number is shown in brackets and in bold.

NOTE: Before the raw data is used to calculate the population it is subject to a detection probability multiplier which inflates th data.

The results were as follows:

2022 survey

• 5,947 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 2,363,850 (24 per cent increase in population) (x398); and
• 140 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 54,000 (x385).

Climate change impact in period – serious flooding.

2020 survey

• 6,268 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,912,000 (41 per cent increase in population) (x305); and
• 102 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 30,000 (x294).

Climate change impact in period – most serious wildfires known.

2018 survey

• 4,707 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,381,000 (x293); and
• 91 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 44,000 (x483).

2017 survey (shorter transects)

• 2,607 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,429,000 (x548); and
• 23 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 13,000 (x565).

In 2017 the Victorian Government issued permits to kill 2,187 more Red Kangaroos than their entire state population estimate for that year.

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As quotas increase so does the shortfall in the number of animals allocated for commercial exploitation, as the share of actual take against quota declines.

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Topping up falling quotas

The most disgraceful and predictable of all:

“Areas of public land, from which harvesting is excluded under current arrangements, will continue to provide refuge for the harvested species. However, under special circumstances, on the request of the relevant public land manager, harvesting may be authorised to occur on specified areas of public land. Harvesting that occurs on specified public land will be provided for with a separate quota outside of the released commercial quota for each Harvest Zone, but still incorporated into the total quota for that year. Any harvesting that occurs on specified public land will directly replace control that would otherwise be undertaken under an ATCW. As the specified separate quota will still be factored into the total quota, harvesting on public land will not increase the total number of grey kangaroos approved for control”. Victorian Government

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Actual take against commercial quota (per cent)

• 2023 – 43 per cent;
• 2022 – 57 per cent;
• 2021 – 65 per cent (using original quota);
• 2020 – 80 per cent (Government figure, I cannot find a way of checking it); and
• 2019 – 56 per cent (from October 1 to year end, see note below).

NOTE: Trial period 2014 to late 2019, replaced by full exploitation October 1, 2019.

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Actual take against commercial quota (shortfall against quota – number of animals)

• 2023 – 94,518;
• 2022 – 59,504;
• 2021 – 33,446;
• 2020 – 11,836; and
• 2019 – 6,255.

NOTE: ATCW permits being replaced by commercial exploitation over the period.

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Status of Kangaroo, Wallaby, Potoroo and Bettong species and their relatives in Victoria following the catastrophic bushfires in Victoria is 2020. Even the fires and climate change have not stopped the ever growing number of animals killed.

• Toolache Wallaby Macropus greyi EXTINCT
• Eastern Hare Wallaby Lagorchestes leporides EXTINCT
• Bridled Nailtail Wallaby Onychogalea fraenata EXTINCT
• Rufous-bellied Pademelon Thylogale billardierii EXTINCT
• Rufous Rat-kangaroo or Rufous Bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens EXTINCT
• Eastern Bettong Bettongia gaimardi gaimardi EXTINCT
• The Woylie or Brush-tailed Bettong Bettongia penicillata EXTINCT
• Long-nosed Potoroo Potorous tridactylus THREATENED –population in decline
• Long-footed Potoroo Potorous longipes ENDANGERED –population in decline
• Western Grey Kangaroo Macropus fuliginosus – when historical distribution records are compared the species is missing from almost 50 per cent of its former range, shot commercially since 2014. POPULATION IN STEEP DECLINE - AT SIGNIFICANT RISK FROM COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION
• Eastern Grey Kangaroo Macropus giganteus – former range fractured and fragmented, shot commercially since 2014 - POPULATION IN STEEP DECLINE
• Eastern Wallaroo Macropus robustus robustus ENDANGERED –extinct across 99 per cent of its former range in Eastern Victoria – REMAINING POPULATION IMPACTED BY WILDFIRES – CURRENT STATUS UNKNOWN
• Red-necked Wallaby Macropus rufogriseus – POPULATION SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY WILDFIRES
• Red Kangaroo Macropus rufus – restricted in its declining range to far North West Victoria, the species used to occur in at least 50 per cent of Victoria. The species existence in Victoria is directly threatened by Victorian Government actions and has now been driven to the edge of EXTINCTION in the state. Removed from commercial industry list in the state
• Brush-tailed Rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata - ENDANGERED – hunted to near extinction in Victoria, in 1908 alone 92,590 skins were marketed by a single company. LESS THAN 60 ANIMALS REMAINED in the wild in Victoria
• Black Wallaby or Swamp Wallaby Wallabia bicolor - POPULATION SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY WILDFIRES

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