The targeting of Kangaroos in the state has increased almost sixfold  when periods are compared. Claims of population increases are not and cannot be correct given the slow breeding rate and industrial scale killing that is now occurring.

These two trends, rising quotas and falling actual take against quotas, describe the fate of Kangaroos in Victoria. Commercial activity commenced in 2014 as a trial and in 2019 as full commercial exploitation (private land only) taking in the whole state minus inner Melbourne and off shore localities which have no Kangaroos. Commercial exploitation will be allowed on public land from January 2025.

• The total number of Kangaroos targeted (includes the Red Kangaroo) in the period 2010-2012 was 119,997 (these protected animals were targeted using ATCW permits); and
• The total number of Kangaroos targeted (excluding the Red Kangaroo) in the period 2022-2024 was 658,550 (these protected animals were targeted under commercial and ATCW permits).

As quotas increase so does the shortfall in the number of animals allocated for commercial exploitation, as the share of actual take against quota declines.

Actual take against commercial quota (per cent)

• 2023 – 43 per cent;
• 2022 – 57 per cent;
• 2021 – 65 per cent (using original quota);
• 2020 – 80 per cent (Government figure, I cannot find a way of checking it); and
• 2019 – 56 per cent (from October 1 to year end, see note below).

Actual take against commercial quota (shortfall against quota – number of animals)

• 2023 – 94,518;
• 2022 – 59,504;
• 2021 – 33,446;
• 2020 – 11,836; and
• 2019 – 6,255.

‍

The government’s data is showing that the total take of commercial and ATCWs combined was 147,607 animals out of the total target of 236,350. In 2023, 49 per cent of the kill was commercial, dropping from 57 per cent in the previous year. The Victorian Government has just confirmed that:

"The ATCW figures are the maximum number of Kangaroos approved for control by the Conservation Regulator. The actual number controlled may be lower than the approved".

The oddest thing about all this data is that the Victorian Government appear to be wiping out Kangaroos on public land and doing so on the cusp of introducing commercial exploitation in these places.

One thing we can say is anyone thinking about investing in the equipment to enable them to shoot Kangaroos for commercial gain in Victoria needs to think twice, that looks like a very bad investment indeed.

‍

So what do we know? We can say with reasonable confidence that the figure for commercial take is the actual, we also know that, despite denying it when we apply for FOI’s, that the government has a fairly accurate understanding of the number animals it is killing in National and State Parks. We also know that the Q1 and Q2 commercial reports for 2024 have not been published to date. The latter makes it harder to assess the current situation. We also know, and we were accurate in the other states, that what happened in 2023 in relation to commercial take in Victoria was lower than our full year forecast. We also know from the confirmation above, although they do not state it in the data, that the ATCW data is not an actual, but the number of permits and animals targeted. We also know from other states, as Kangaroo populations decline, that the number of animals targeted by harms / protection permits has fallen sharply. This means that the government stated combined total of 147,607 Kangaroos killed in Victoria through these processes has a very high probability of being too high. We also know, because of the hyper-inflation of population estimates, that the government’s claim of just taking 3 per cent of the Grey Kangaroo population in Victoria for commercial purposes is significantly understated, as is the 6 per cent figure combining commercial and ATCWs.

Our estimates show that the most probable total kill in 2023 was, adjusting the claimed ATCW number of 75,375 downwards to 31,657, gives a total kill figure for Grey Kangaroos in Victoria in 2023 of 103,889. This reduction with even the significant level of killing occurring on public land.

So this gives us the following numbers: 44 per cent of original Victorian Government target of 236,350; and with the population of Grey Kangaroos adjusted to our estimate of 800,000 gives the likely percentage take of the population at 13 per cent (if we go with the government kill figure this becomes 18.4 per cent of the population), not 6 per cent, and much higher than 'sustainable'. We are being generous to the government with these calculations. A claim in the data descriptor that populations increased in the period 2022-2023 is dubious.

‍

Human harms and obfuscation

The shocking cost to residents and business owners caught in the front line of the commercial killing cannot be underestimated. Doing something about the disruption and trauma imposed directly because of government policy is next to impossible. In this case the costs of loss would be very high.

Below is a paragraph from a recent response by the Acting Deputy Secretary, Regional Development and Outdoor Recreation, to a resident and business owner severely impacted by the shooting of Kangaroos adjacent to her property and business, putting both at risk. Beyond this paragraph, the letter is full of inaccurate statements and claims that cannot be justified and is aggressive and dismissive. It is typical of so many letters of this type we have seen. The Acting Deputy Secretary claims that Kangaroos can be dangerous, as someone who was very close to being killed on our own regional property in Victoria, I can tell you that shooters can be very dangerous, Kangaroos are certainly not. Unless, that is, you try to harm them. The claims always being made by the Victorian Government include Kangaroos cause damage to property, the admission below is typical but shocking. They have no record or evidence of damage and nothing on which to base these claims.

“You requested the metrics of damage caused by Kangaroos to property. In some areas, wildlife can damage property, farmland or the environment. Wildlife can also pose a threat to human safety or suffer in areas where the species is over-abundant. Wildlife control may be needed to manage the problem. I am unaware of any national or state level statistics of damage caused by wildlife, including Kangaroos, to property on private or public land”. Acting Deputy Secretary, Regional Development and Outdoor Recreation

‍