Australian mainland

The population estimates for 2024 on which the 2025 commercial quotas are based show an increase in the population of Kangaroos of 6,829,402 animals, more than double the maximum biological increase in perfect circumstances. The increase in quota over 2024 is 1,255,035 animals to  6,234,292 in 2025.

The Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts that the actual take in 2025 will be 1,231,500 Kangaroos, just 20 per cent of the Australian mainland quota for the year. The low actual take is because Kangaroos do not exist in the numbers quoted by state governments and are not as a result of a collapse in market demand for meat and body parts from Kangaroos used in the pet food industry.

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Comments by state

The kinds of changes that have enabled the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos to continue, even as actual take against quota continues to fall, are:

• At the state level, adding new species of Macropod to the commercial list;
• Expanding shooting zones, including onto public lands; and
• Improving access through various mechanisms including streamlining of processes.

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New South Wales

Giving the New South Wales Government’s claims regarding the population increase of Kangaroos in that state a reality check, a rough estimate of the maximum biologically possible population increase off the base of 9,634,900 would be 10 per cent. We will ignore the high probability that the 2023 population estimate was already too high and the number of Kangaroos killed in 2024 (including a large number of joeys not accounted for) further diminish the likely increase in population. We should note that the calculation here is derived from testimony and parliamentary documents from the New South Wales Government’s inquiry Health and wellbeing of Kangaroos and other Macropods in New South Wales (referred March 2021).

After this session in the Inquiry, Penny Sharpe, New South Wales Environment Minister and committee member, made the following comment:

“That is great. That all makes sense, I think, to the Committee. I think we are now across that”.

So at the maximum possible increase (as we appear to agree), that gives an additional 960,000 (my view is that this number is still far too high). So let’s take 960,000 for the example here, so that would mean that the latest New South Wales Government estimate of the increase in population is too high by 3,315,788 Kangaroos.

So the question to the New South Wales Government is where did the additional Kangaroos come from?

My comment to Penny Sharpe, New South Wales Environment Minister, prior to the publication of the government’s quota report for 2025, was as follows:

“Surely, particularly given the Inquiry led by Cate (Faehrmann), and given what you know, you are not going to allow these numbers to be published in the final quota report next week? They need to be checked as they do NOT look possible”.

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Queensland

The 2024 Kangaroo population estimates for Queensland provide the data for the 2025 commercial quotas for three species of Macropods. With the largest population of Kangaroos, Queensland kills the most Kangaroos for commercial gain when compared to other Australian states. Queensland Government Kangaroo population estimates remain far too high, reflected in actual take against quota for both commercial and damage mitigation permits (DMPs).

What is extraordinary and demonstrates how absurd the 2024 Queensland Kangaroo population estimates and subsequent quotas for 2025 are, is that the Queensland quota for 2025 is more than double our latest forecast for actual take in all Australia (mainland) in 2024. We have been very accurate in these matters.

“Due to the costs associated with aerial surveys, not all monitor blocks are surveyed annually. The main feature of the current monitoring program is the establishment of pairs of closely correlated monitor blocks within each bioregion. Pairs are monitored on a rotating basis with each block surveyed every two years. Where there is only a single monitor block within a bioregion or where a monitor block samples a unique macropod community these blocks are sampled annually. All monitoring blocks are surveyed every five years”. Queensland Government 2024

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South Australia

While this cruel trade in wildlife should not occur at all, the following species should be removed from the commercial list with immediate effect because of significant damage to actual populations:

• Euro.

Then the recent 2020 additions:

• Kangaroo Island Sooty Kangaroo;
• Tammar Wallaby; and
• Eastern Grey Kangaroo.

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Western Australia

Our view, while probably overstated, is that the Western Australian Government have been the most 'sensible' of all mainland states in estimating their Kangaroo populations, that puts them out of step with other states.

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Victoria

The latest numbers describe allocations that reverse the Victorian Government’s policy of shifting ATCW permits to commercial permits. This reversal of policy also occurred in 2024. While the Victorian Government does not answer the question, we can assume that this is being done to backdoor the commercial killing of Kangaroos into National and State Parks as ‘land managers’ transfer their ATCW permits to commercial. The quantum of this needs to be clarified.

We should note that the Victorian Kangaroo killing system requires that commercial kills are accounted for and reported, ATCW kills, once the ATCW permits are issued, have no reporting requirement. So for ATCW permits issued, the Victorian Government does not have a clue about what actually happened. Failure to meet commercial quotas is very telling, so shifting more permits across to ATCWs means no one knows what actually happened.

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‍^{Note: For 2024 and 2025, actual take numbers in italic are Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts and these will be updated to actuals as we receive them from state governments..}

^{Note: Quota numbers shown in the table above do not include mitigation permit quotas.}

^{Note: Data does not include death of joeys, if full quota was achieved a rough estimate of the number of joeys beaten to death or decapitated would be 1,850,500. Assuming our Nature Knowledge Channel estimates are reasonably accurate as they usually are , 366,000 joeys would die a very cruel and gruesome death.}

^{Note: Tasmania is not included as it does not report in the same way as other states are required to do.}

^{Note: Percentage of actual take increases mainly because the quota is lower in a given year. For example, the 2021 quota for Australia was 1,524,085 lower than the quota in 2020. What was particularly shocking was that for the quota alone, the reduction in the quota between those years was higher than the actual annual take in each year.}

^{Note: Updated November 2024 – For South Australia the actual take against quota for 2023 was revised down from the original advice I received. The actual (including the special land management quota) was 100,088 (down from 100,594) and included 53 Tammar Wallabies (quota was 24,900). Therefore actual take against the 2023 quota of 634,200 (including special land management quota) was just 16 per cent. This describes exactly why the South Australian Government needs to conduct a Kangaroo Inquiry.}

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The rise and fall of actual take

Table 2 tracks the rise and fall of actual commercial take from 1980. Australian mainland population estimates appear to have been removed from the accessible Commonwealth data to 2001. If anyone has the missing data I would be pleased to receive it.

“It is time Australians woke up to the fact that all around the world there is abhorrence over the virtually uncontrolled slaughter of the majority of Kangaroos. The suggestions that there has been proper control and conservation have been proved to be a lie and nonsense”. Senator Murphy, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 1973

Between 2011 and 2014 the four state governments of Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, claimed that Kangaroo populations had risen from 25,158,026 to 53,198,517 over the period, more than doubling. This coincided with a major push to open up Victoria to the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and a major marketing effort, which went around the globe, claiming that there were two Kangaroos for every Australian and the pest marketing spin began in earnest. The problem is that the claims about increasing population numbers are biologically impossible therefore there was zero probability that the claim was correct.

We can ask ourselves how a national government could allow this and even fund projects to help the exploitation? With all the pressure the Victorian Government opened up Victoria to commercial Kangaroo shooters in 2014, initially as a trial.

“This decision is about the sustainable management of Kangaroos in Victoria and ensuring commercial drivers don’t influence the current Authority to Control Wildlife system”. Lily D”Ambrosio, Victorian Environment Minister

The killing of Kangaroos in Victoria increased by times 4.35, if we were comparing like with like, two species, not three, that multiplier would be higher.

In the last four years, during which time commercial exploitation in Victoria was fully operational (includes 2024) the Victorian Government has targeted 849,750 (this number for just the two commercially exploited species and not including the 225,000 joeys they would have killed in the process if quotas had been met).

Even with Victoria in the mix, the decline of actual take against quota continues.

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‍^{Note: Actual take data for 2024 and 2025 (col 3) shown in the table above in italic are Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts at this time and will be replaced as actuals become available. Our track record of forecasting actual take has been one of accuracy.}

^{Note: The Nature Knowledge Channel’s EARTH section contains state by state analyses of the circumstances for Kangaroos and their commercial exploitation by year.}